Is the Entertainment Fading? The Decline of the Goals from Open Play

Football match action
The Wolves squad have scored a decrease of 10 scores from open play compared to at this stage last season.

A key narrative of England's top flight this campaign is the drop of goals scored in open-play scenarios and the way teams are finding goals more from set-pieces as an alternative.

Comparing how goals have been scored to matchday 11 last season, we note 39 fewer scored in open-play and an increase of 26 from team set-pieces and spot-kicks, giving us 13 fewer altogether.

If we look at the broader view, the number of shots sides are producing reveal a staggering drop of 370 in open play than at this stage previously.

Even with the notable jump in set-piece goals, records show only two additional shots created from these situations outside of spot-kicks, showing the proficiency sides have been at devising strategies to convert from dead-ball situations.

Goal Statistics Reveal an Interesting Narrative

301 total goals recorded in the first 110 fixtures to date averages out at 2.74 scores each match, if maintained for the whole season could be the smallest for since 2020-21, since 2020-21 (2.69).

Yet merely 196 scores scored in open play equates to 1.78 each match and is heading to be the lowest for 16 seasons, from 16 years ago (1.76 per game).

The 2009-10 season is also the sole English top-flight season to see goals scored more frequently from set-plays excluding penalties than this season's rate of 0.77 per game (0.79 average).

Which Sides Account for This Change?

In terms of goals scored from open-play, Wolves have experienced the largest decline, netting a mere four in their first 11 fixtures, 10 fewer than at this stage last season.

Outside of Wolves, the Premier League's decline in goals from open play is predominantly a trend among London clubs, with five out of the city's seven teams recording five or more goals fewer from open play than the previous year.

Honestly, that's largely down to their scoring lots of goals at the start of the previous campaign instead of their genuine struggle to find the net in open-play the current term.

At the same time Man City have seen the biggest increase, with nearly all of their 23 goals this season coming in open play.

Set-Play Proficiency

Comparing newly promoted sides with those that were relegated they took the place of. Sunderland Sunderland have scored three more scores in open play than the Saints achieved in matchday 11 leading to relegation last season.

In terms of goals scored from set-plays (excluding spot-kicks), the Gunners and Chelsea have experienced the most significant jump, with each team replacing the reduction of five scores that they've netted in open play with the same number from set-pieces.

Manchester United have scored two times more goals from set-pieces as they managed in the first 11 matches the previous campaign ahead of their coach took charge, while Sunderland additionally prove better at netting than the fellow red-and-whites they replaced.

Man City seem unaware of the trend about increasing scoring from set-pieces, since they've scored three less than the previous campaign, like Nottingham Forest, although that might be down to the altered approach they're working to install.

Overall Patterns

Six sides – the Gunners, the Blues, Fulham, the Magpies, Spurs and West Ham – are this term's leading trend-followers by netting less scores from open-play and more from set-plays, while Man City represent the unique club to buck the trend so far by doing the contrary.

It will be interesting to watch if clubs persist to place such emphasis on set-pieces as the season goes on or if they find again their overall inventiveness and begin scoring increased totals in open-play also.

Jonathon Roberts
Jonathon Roberts

Elara is a tech enthusiast and digital strategist with over a decade of experience in innovation and transformation projects.