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At first, the former US president seemed to embrace a resolute approach on the Ukrainian conflict. After issuing warnings of "serious ramifications" last August should Putin continued blocking truce talks, he ultimately imposed substantial sanctions on the Russian primary petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision seriously impacted Putin's capacity to fund his war effort in Ukraine.

However, with his recently unveiled comprehensive peace initiative for Ukraine, that was developed by both nations' representatives excluding Ukrainian or EU involvement, he has clearly reverted to his Russia-friendly approach.

Rewarding Invasion

This initiative would essentially reward the Russian leader for attacking Ukraine while leaving Ukraine's democracy in danger. Despite ringing declarations that "The nation's independence will be upheld", large portions of the proposal effectively compromise that very autonomy. This constitutes a Russian ideal would certainly be a disaster for Ukraine.

Reflecting his business background, Trump continues to consider the situation in Ukraine as a basic border issue, like ceding Russia a portion of Ukrainian territory will appease the leader. Yet, Russia's invasion is not only about dominating a charred area of deindustrialized territory in the Donbas region. Rather, it is about the nation's political system – and Putin's apparent intention to weaken it so it no longer functions as an appealing standard for the Russian citizens of the accountable leadership that his deepening autocracy denies them.

Territorial Surrenders

While freezing in status the already separated Ukrainian provinces of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's initiative would require Ukraine to surrender the whole Donetsk region. Beyond favoring Russia with area that its troops have been failed to capture in over a ten years of warfare, this concession would make Ukraine's defenses dangerously undermined.

This region is the site of the nation's well-known "fortress belt", the fortified military defenses that are a key barrier to invading forces. The proposal would have Ukraine leave these positions, leaving Putin a clear way to Kyiv if he eventually opt to renew the war.

Military Restrictions

Furthermore, in a action that would make renewed hostilities simpler for Russia, the plan would mandate Ukraine to cut the numbers of its military from their present approximately 800,000 personnel to a maximum of this lower number. Notably, the proposal sets no similar constraints on the invading army.

Seemingly as a concession to Russia's efforts to depict the nation's legitimate government as radicals, Trump's plan asserts: "Any extremist belief system and actions must be rejected and banned." Apparently to highlight this aspect, it demands that "Ukraine will hold democratic votes in this period" of a peace deal. At the same time, Trump sets no condition that Putin jeopardize his regime by allowing votes in Russia.

Protection Guarantees

Admittedly, the initiative has the Russian Federation pledge not to "invade bordering nations" and to "enshrine in legislation its position of non-violence towards the EU and Ukraine". However taking into account that the Russian leadership has violated equivalent accords in the past – such as the 1994 agreement, in which the Russian government pledged to honor the nation's borders in exchange for relinquishing its former Soviet nuclear arsenal, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia agreed to a truce and a handback of captured land in the region to Kyiv – for what reason should we have confidence in Russia on this occasion?

This explains Ukraine has been so insistent on international defense commitments. While the plan warns of a "decisive coordinated defense action" if Russia restart its aggression, and states that "The nation will receive dependable security guarantees", the particulars include fuzzy to concerning. The proposal would not only deny the nation Nato membership but also prohibit member states from deploying military personnel on Ukrainian territory, thus blocking the security presence, likely led by Britain and France, on which Ukraine had been depending to prevent Russia from rebuilding his weakened troops, restocking, and resuming aggression.

World Concern

Another side agreement apparently would provide Ukraine with a Nato-style protection assurance, in which any future "major, deliberate, and ongoing aggression" by the Russian Federation on the country "will be treated as an attack threatening the peace and security of the transatlantic community." That suggests a defense action. However different from a strong Ukrainian military – Ukraine's most reliable protection against renewed Russian aggression – the effectiveness of the parallel accord would depend on the dedication of Nato leaders, like Trump, to respond through arms to Russia's attacks, an action they have {not